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Jun29
It's a Sign - The End is Near

Andy Grove wrote in his book, "Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points That Challenge Every Company" (Amazon has it for only about $12!) That in an expanding market you will see businesses break from trying to server the whole vertical to parts of it. One will become a manufacturer, another a distributor, retailer or wholesaler. As the market matures there are striations of each type. It happens again and again, as companies focus on what they do best and where they can maximize profits.

When a market is in decline, companies drop-out, they acquire other companies, and the striations disappear as companies again begin to serve the entire vertical. In today's Wall Street Journal, (you may need to subscribe to see it) Don Clark discusses the acquisition of Komag Inc. by Western Digital Corp. He quotes WD President John Coyne, "This acquisition puts us in position to be in greater control of our own destiny." (The press release)

Mr. Coyne even discusses other acquisitions which point to the same conclusion as this acquisition indicates; that what everyone knew would happen to the hard drive industry is happening. It will not be over tomorrow, but it will not last very much longer. Unless they are working hard to reposition themselves with huge investments in flash or other similar memory storage methods, they will be history.

Are you watching for the signs in your industry?


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