Mar31 |
I don't watch basketball very much. To me, it seems that all you need to see are the last few minutes to see the most important part of the game. The last few minutes last about 30 minutes anyway. But each year, as March Madness around the NCAA tournament grows more and more popular, I am reminded of the fact that "once upon a time" the NIT (National Invitation Tournament) was at one time the big dance. If you would like to know more about the origins of the NIT and NCAA tournaments you can always visit Wikipedia. This makes me think about how many once popular products, companies, TV shows, events, and people have faded over time. At times, these fades seem to happen very quickly and for no obvious reason.
Why do these fades happen?
- Indifference to Competition
- Over-confidence (Arrogance)
- Aggressive Advertising (Annoyance)
- Failure to Update
- Next Big Thing Arrives
There are of course, many things that can be learned from these fades:
- Nothing lasts forever
- Any leader can be overtaken
- Success does not require originality
- Bigger is not always better
- Familiarity breeds contempt
Some fades can be highly instructional:
(On a related note: the 10 year old Dell has died. RIP Roadwarrior!)
Some things that appear to be fading:
- Is it to early to consider Brittany Spears a fade?
- Has Christianity faded? Is it because Islam continues to grow?
Some things never seem to fade:
- Levi's 501 jeans
- Chocolate
- Flowers as a symbol of romance
- War
- Greed
Rather than have a very long blog post, I will cover these fades and questions over the next few posts. That way we can explore the reasons and discuss them. If you have an illustrative fade you would like to discuss, please post a comment or send me an email.
(I was going to save this post for April 1 but then I thought people may mistake it for a hoax. It has been my expereince that posts made at night or posted early in the morning attract more readers.)
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Mar18 |
I love working on business plans with aspiring and serial entrepreneurs. The enthusiasm and creativity they have is invigorating. I enjoy my role as the one who helps point out inconsistencies or minor mistakes. I like to help them make the plan better. There are always differences in style but I think that is useful. If all BPs looked the same, they would get very boring very quickly.
I don't always enjoy the role of pointing out big errors or mistakes. At times, the error is just a miscalculation or missing explanation. Those are easy. It is the times where reason has left the discussion that I find most difficult. When a person does not understand that a population of 200,000 people will not all run to a store the day it opens, or that everyone will not buy a product simply because it is obvious to the inventor that the product is superior.
How do you tell someone their baby is ugly?
Why do some people think that they will be the exception to the rules? I hope they are the exception, but it seems better to plan for things to proceed in a normal or worse than normal manner. I try using a financial argument. Trying to get them to see the math does not work. I try to reason with them - you cannot work 100 hours a week for 5 year and expect everyone else to as well. Why would someone loan you $3 million at 0% interest just because they will be able to get their money back?
Just once, I would like for someone to provide me with an acceptable reason as to why they, when no one else is, will they be the exception to the rules or norm?
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Feb20 |
Every company goes through periods of high excitement and high anxiety. In most cases the difference in the way a company emerges from these moments has to do with the leader. A person who can pull the team together can capitalize on the excitement or anxiety. A person who falls apart, or displays weakness will lose control. My favorite definition of a leader was something Marcus Buckingham wrote in, "The One Thing You Need to Know":
"Great leaders rally people to a better future." He wrapped up a section on leadership with this paragraph, that I think captures the essence of how the followers feel.  So, as you strive to lead us toward a better future, remember that we need clarity, and that actions, both the symbolic and the systematic, can be wonderfully, comfortingly clear. If you can sort through all the actions available to you and identify the few that can grab our attention or alter our routines, then our confidence in you and your better future will grow strong.
With all of the various political, economic, and social leader wannabes we have shouting at us today, it is amazing how few of them get this very simple point. We who are to follow, want to follow someone who will actually lead with authority, clarity, and vision. Two out of three is not enough. What do you look for in a leader?
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Feb12 |
Recently I was asked to explain my problem solving methodology. In a single sentence, it is this:
Find the optimal, perfect world solution, and see how close you can get to that.
The full answer is a bit lengthy but I'll summarize it here. The diagram, which will be part of Maps for Modern Magellans Volume 2, is what I call the Project Curves.
Elocution Phase (Talking)
- Determine the "real" issue. Too often, we treat the symptom not the disease.
- Understand the magnitude of the issue. What is the cost, brand impact, scope, extent, and frequency of the problem. This helps set the priority the situation receives and the resources that need to be allocated.
- Was an existing procedure, instruction, or regulation not followed? Why reinvent a solution that already exists? The real problem could just be a case of someone not following instructions.
- Is there a flaw in an existing procedure, instruction, or regulation? The fix could be very simple and again, require few resources.
- Assuming it is a new issue or an issue that has not been solved previously the following steps are used:
a. Brainstorming - be sure to write down possible solutions before evaluating them in much detail. It is very important that the first answer be written down so that the brain allows other solutions to come forward. It is a common practice to give the first thing that comes to mind greater weight than any subsequent thoughts (See Blink by Malcolm Gladwell) b. Place the solutions along a range: 
c. Approach perfection as much as possible within the limits of resources
Gap - between talking and doing - After all of the talking has finished, make a decision based on reason and experience.
Execution Phase- Execute with boldness
- Review results and do better next time
As I said, this is an outline of my process. Many times, a problem does not require much effort. On other occasions, the amount of effort is significant and worth the time spent.
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Feb11 |
There is a tendency to put something together and then walk away. The hope is that the installation will go well and that the something will just work as it was intended for years and years. It is more fun to work on new things than to maintain old things. The grass is always greener when compared to the dirt that was there before than it is when compared to the grass that grew there last year. The rate of success of a new product is often in high double digits. The change in sales for an old product is often in single digits or low double digits. People seem to enjoy talking about new products. Rarely is there much buzz about old reliable products. Here are some examples of what I mean:
- Leaders write a directive for a new program, and then no follow-up (Leadership)
- Buying a car and then never going to have it tuned up (Personal Growth)
- Building a bridge and then not servicing it properly (Politics)
- Working to capture a market and then not launching well (Branding)
- Developing a new product, then not improving on it (Product Development)
One could argue on that last point, since the item was sold for 6 years and then the guys who wrote the OS ended up writing the OS for the iPOD. There may be better examples but the point is still made.
As one conquers more territory, there is more territory to maintain. The ancient empire builders learned this lesson. You cannot simply overrun a country and then move on if you hope to keep it. The downside is that the troops available for the next invasion are reduced with each capture. Empire builders knew this and would build new strength before moving on. They would install local leaders that were loyal or trustable and work to recruit new forces form the captured lands. As you consider the company budget, consider how much easier it is to keep the market share you have, rather than fight to get it back.
Politicians love to spend money on new projects because such efforts make headlines. They get no praise for money spent maintaining a bridge. If we learned anything from the bridge collapse in Minnesota it is this; we cannot ignore the present need to keep what we have. If we fail to spend the money where we already have investment, then we will fall victim to relentless decay.
As I work on business plans, I am constantly surprised by the lack of planning for anything other than growth. In the first year, this is understandable but after that, the company should have some base that it serves. Any company that has to rely on a constant stream of new customers will always fail. Repeat purchasing is a huge barrier to entry only when customers want to come back.
In the average company, should more money be spent on quality control or R&D?
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Feb 6 |
Last Minute Changes:
There are still a few things to finish up after Super Tuesday but it looks like the last minute changes made by Senator McCain and Governor Romney were not the things they should have done. Given the close race in the southern states Governor Romney might, and we will probably never know for certain, have been better served by campaigning in Missouri and Georgia. Senator McCain should not have wasted time in Massachusetts. McCain should have gone to Georgia where he finished even closer to Mike Huckabee. As it stands, neither of McCain's opponents are officially out, but he could have had a more decisive day.
Weak Execution:
Perhaps the best example of not following through on a plan is that of Rudy Giuliani. His win in Florida and win big on Super Tuesday may have actually worked had he invested the time and effort to build momentum going into Florida. He did not need to win Florida. A decent showing would have meant that today, February 6, 2008 he might have had as many delegates as anyone else in the Republican race. Anyone who has ever launched a new toy knows that you cannot bring it out in November and hope to have big Christmas sales. You have to build awareness and a sense of desire for the product. The launch curve always starts at zero. Apple has had some stunning successes with new products but they have always built buzz for them before they were released.
Attention Grabbing:
What can we learn from the Democrats? It ain't over until it's over. I can't say who will be the victor but neither candidate looks to be on the ropes. The closeness of the race actually helps both get more media attention. This attention may cost the Republicans as their race becomes less interesting. I think I have said this before, "Pick a fight in public and both sides may profit." Consider Donald Trump and Rosie O'Donnell. Both had shows that were fading in the ratings. A good fight brought them both a lot of free media. Both of their shows improved dramatically in the ratings for a time.
What can you do to draw attention to your business that would get you free media?
Will that attention be a good thing?
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Feb 5 |
As the political campaign hit Super Tuesday, it was interesting to see how the two frontrunners on the Republican side worked the day. After months of planning and organizing both candidates changed plans at the last minute. Gov. Romney headed back to California after it was reported that he had a sudden surge in the polls here. Senator McCain changed his plans when he heard the Romney was coming back to California.
What these events brought to my mind is the way companies make plans and then, as if all of that planning was useless, they do something else. It is not for me to say if these were good decisions or not. It is hard to imagine how a last minute visit would make any difference but it might. If nothing, the trips got more news coverage for one or the other. 
How often do you spend a great deal of time pondering and planning only to go with your gut or hold off at the last minute? If you look at military campaigns failures often result from weak commitment. If you make a decision, shouldn't your reversal of that decision receive as much consideration? Failure to act can be bad, but acting in a half committed manner is often the worst course of action
Last minute information can cause or require a change of plan, but before you make that change, you really should consider all of the time and effort that went into the original plan. If the new information was actually considered before, then why does it have more weight now?
 For my second volume, I have several chapters on decision-making. One of the key things to note is that we all have difficulty weighing information accurately. What is in the front of our minds often carries more weight than what is not. This is why in a taste test or beauty contest it is best to go first. People judge the first against an expectation or nothing. People judge the second and remaining entrants against the first.
What do you do to keep last minute fear or data from taking precedence over deliberated plans?
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Feb 4 |
On Saturday we did something we have not done for a long time, we watched a movie on broadcast television. For various reasons we had never rented or bought Steven Spielberg's "War of the Worlds." When I saw that it was going to be on ABC Saturday night we decided to watch it. We will probably never make that mistake again.
The show was to start at 8 PM. At 8 PM ABC showed 10 minutes of previews of upcoming television programs. Of those 10 minutes 5 or more were dedicated to the upcoming Sean Combs (AKA P. Diddy) show. I have no interest in seeing anything he is involved in. Call me old fashioned, but I try not to contribute to the ability of drug users to afford to refill their supplies.
During the broadcast, ABC would show 8 minutes of the movie and 7 minutes of commercials in an alternating fashion. Since this went on for 3 hours I think we were sufficiently convinced that we will not watch LOST, or anything else on ABC for awhile. We were so thoroughly bothered by the barrage of advertising, that we went beyond trying to ignore them to actively mocking them as we waited for the show to return.
The point of this story is not to enter into a discussion about the cost of free television. I understand the trade-off. What I want to point out is that similar things happen in other businesses and we may not know we are doing it.
10 Examples of punishing customers:
1. Hold Messages that "pump the company" while customers wait for assistance
2. Webpages with 30% content and 70% advertising
3. Products that are contaminated with lead, poisons, or other harmful materials
4. Faulty instructions for the operation of a purchased product
5. Software that modifies the purchaser's computer in an undisclosed way
6. Advertising that is inappropriate for "general audiences"
7. Long Checkout lines - worse when they are lined with last-minute purchase temptations
8. Rebates
9. Gift Cards that decrease in value if not used
10. Long wait times for assistance online, on the phone or in person
I could go on but I would like to solicit your thoughts. In what ways do you feel punished by companies you would like to purchase from, or have purchased from?
What can you or should you do about it?
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Jan30 |
It's a great thing to have employees that go the extra mile to make the company successful. According to reports, (WSJ) Jérôme Kerviel was just trying to help Societe Generale.
On his motives: "What motivated me to do these trades was . . . above all making the bank gain money. This was my foremost motivation, and I never meant to become rich."
Since his motives were sincere, should we then just forget about this and move on?
I think that this kind of behavior points to a problem that is not often addressed. People cheat because they feel that the end result is more important. Look at the political races. Clinton and McCain have both lied repeatedly in the 2008 campaign and yet they are the front-runners. When will society begin to hold a higher standard?
If the end is really that important, consider John Huntsman. His personal worth is close to $10 billion. He wrote a very nice little book based on his business experience called, "Winners Never Cheat" It takes less than an hour to read and is worth every minute. It even has a foreword by Neil Cavuto of Fox News and Fox Business Channel.
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Jan29 |
A story published by Reuters and viewable on Yahoo News was recently brought to my attention that a company in Japan gives time off for heartache.-
Tokyo-based Hime & Company, which also gives staff paid time off to hit the shops during sales season, says heartache leave allows staff to cry themselves out and return to work refreshed. "Not everyone needs to take maternity leave but with heartbreak, everyone needs time off, just like when you get sick," CEO Miki Hiradate, whose company of six women markets cosmetics and other goods targeted for women, told Reuters by telephone.
It reminded me of a time when I was in Tokyo on business and my Grandfather died. He and I were close. I was in Japan for 5 days to work with CosmoBio and on the morning of the 5th day I received an email letting me know that he had died. It was a terrible blow to me and people around me could see that I had received bad news. When I told the person working with me she expressed her sympathy and then immediately walked away. I thought that was strange but I had more important things on my mind. 
One by one, the top management of the company, from the CEO on down, stopped by the room where I was working to express their sympathy. I was very touched by their visits and kind words. Many did not speak English well and my Japanese is not great but I knew what they intended. This went on for about 30 minutes.
I was scheduled to fly home that afternoon and I wondered how I would get any work done between my feelings and the many sympathetic visits I was receiving. When the operating manager came in, I expressed my gratitude for the visits and my concern about what still needed to be done before I flew home. He told me that there was nothing more important right now than for me to leave the office and spend some time in a quiet place.
If you have casually visited Tokyo you might think, as I did, that there are no quiet places in Tokyo. I was wrong. I was directed to a park, I do not remember its name, but it is right near the Tokyo Dome. It was built centuries ago in memory of a ruler's fiancée that had passed away. It was so quiet and beautiful. It was just what I needed at that moment.
I may have forgotten the name of the park but I have never forgotten the lesson I learned that day. I will never forget the friends who reminded me about what is most important. Their attitude and expressions have always left me with a great feeling for Japan and for the manner in which they conduct themselves. This post could also categorized under WAYS - What Are You Saying. When you provide time for people to deal with the realities of life you are saying that you care. If you treat your friends, staff, and associates in this same manner it will not only show that you have compassion, but it will also build a bond between you and them. In Lewis Green's book, Lead With Your Heart, he talks a lot about putting people first. I believe that the management and staff of CosmoBio showed me that putting people first does help build a better business and a better world. It is often easy to put off grieving because we have so much to do. In the end I think we miss a part of being human that is very important. I hope as you work with people every day that you remember that we are all people and we do need time to feel our feelings.
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